Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
