A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
